Internet Noise and The Delphi Effect
There’s been a lot of discussion in the tech sector recently - most notably depicted on TechMeme - regarding the concept of Internet “noise.”
Robert Scoble is among those who argue the noise is incredibly valuable and should be embraced. His logic is to the effect that mainstream media (MSM) sites - and even aggregated collections of MSM sites, such as those appearing on Google News - focus on conveying polished, easily digested sources of information which are designed for quick consumption, but are not wholly representative of the complexities and realities of user opinion.
New forms of mass communication such as Twitter on the other hand are the exact opposite. When taken piece-meal you gain an interesting sense of insight into the thoughts and opinions of each individual user. However, when aggregated in bulk the threads merge into a cacophony of voices that is truly overwhelming initially.
As overwhelming as this is on the surface, Scoble and others argue that the noise is indicative of trends - whether established or emerging - however you have to know how to listen, filter, and as importantly, interpret.
For a long time I didn’t understand what they were driving at by saying the noise is good, however in my continued reading of Eric Raymond’s “The Cathedral and The Bazaar“, I think I’m starting to understand.
In the section titled “Release Early, Release Often“, Raymond describes the logic behind the Linux philosophy of early and frequent release cycles. Notably this section quips the now famous saying: “Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow.” However it also discusses the concept of the Delphi Effect:
“Sociologists years ago discovered that the averaged opinion of a mass of equally expert (or equally ignorant) observers is quite a bit more reliable a predictor than the opinion of a single randomly-chosen one of the observers. They called this the Delphi effect.”
It would seem therefore that the trends inherent in the noise, which Scoble et al are listening to, are in fact a contemporary, publicly visible instantiation of the Delphi Effect - and on a mass scale.
If this is the case it also immediately highlights the value inherent in what Duncan Riley recently anointed the “Blogging 2.0” era. Here conversation and discussion have taken centre stage; and ideas, not content, reign supreme.
The conversations presently occurring on Twitter, FriendFeed, Disqus and the like provide an amazing insight into not just popular culture trends, but the myriad of opinions, and ultimately people that underpin them.
From a sociological standpoint the research potential is truly remarkable - the key question is how to harness this opportunity.
References:
- “Delphi effect“, Wikipedia, accessed 20 May 2008
- “Blogging 2.0: It’s All About The User“, Duncan Riley, The Inquisitr, 18 May 2008
- “The Cathedral and The Bazaar“, Eric Raymond, May 1993
Tuesday, May 20th, 2008